التنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين في جامعة إب للأعوام (2018-2022م) باستخدام نماذج بوكس جينكنز
Forecasting admission is an imperative for universities because of the consequent drawing of their future orientation clearly. Therefore, the current study aimed to develop a model to Forecast the numbers of students admitted to the University of Ibb, and through it the numbers of admitted students are Forecasted for the future period (2018-2022) and the researchers used the Box method Jencks to analyze the time series data for the number of admitted students at Ibb University and its amount (18) years for the period (2000- 2017) using statistical programs: Minitab, Eviews, Excel, The study reached a set of results, the most important of which are: The time series for the number of admitted students is static, and the model (1.0) ARMA is the well-represented template for time series data; As all his parameters were significant, in addition to obtaining the smallest value for each of the comparison criteria (MSE, AIC, SIC) among other models, according to the results of the model estimates, the numbers of accepted students were Forecasted for the future period (2018-2022) T = 641.053 + 0.781 Y_ (t-1), and the researchers recommend that it is necessary to reconsider the numbers of students admitted and develop the absorptive capacity in the University of Ibb in proportion to the numbers of students who are expected to be admitted for the coming academic years. (Published abstract)